My stand on OGL
- I'm a stakeholder as GameintheBrain uses OGL 1.0a for Mneme.
- I've watched and followed most of the analysis and news. Particularly the legal analysis and the financial analysis. I agree with Ryan Danceys analysis - I do admit saying he's the architect of the OGL is kinda shocking but its true having lead Open Projects myself -
- When NO ONE BELIEVES YOU - you take on a lot of the risk to your name and credibility. its super hard and yeah - arm chair or back seat project managers will never take the time to study the Social and Technical aspects of implementation - as well as that there are PROBABILITIES for the success of every action - where they sit in the backseat/armchair failing to recognize the convoluted tree of probabilities and strategies at play.
- Network Externalities and all the technical aspects and analysis and proceeding with Evidence-Based decision making as well as the Trial and Error as we eventually have to improvise as we do have a Finite capacity to predict what will happen even if we do have evidence and a strong grounded reasoning as to our approach and goal.
- I do understand people can disagree with Ryans Analysis as for what they will do - I cannot say.
- Game in the Brain will join ORC and replace our OGL with ORC when ORC comes out. removing WOTC in the license agreement and making it part of the Lawfirm or Electronic Frontier Foundation will steward the license.
- I also read the Statement of WOTC. As a Game Theory enthusiast who depends on its logic for detecting sociopaths and untrustworthy parties - A apology built on mistruths is a Non-credible Apology. A non-credible apology is a SIGNAL for enemy action.
https://investor.hasbro.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/10-q/0000046080-22-000123
People Spend 1 Billion dollars on D&D even if the quality is not as good as the other 3rd party publishers.
- https://investor.hasbro.com/static-files/82d54a01-a7b3-4d13-885e-b01a526b75dc
Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segment net revenues decreased 2% in the first nine months of 2022 to $986.1 million from $1,008.7 million in the first nine months of 2021 and included the impact of an unfavorable $19.9 million foreign currency translation. Absent the impact of foreign currency exchange, Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming Segment net revenues were relatively flat.
Conclusions
- 1B is up for grabs (IT WILL GROW to 4B). WHY:
- the underdeveloped 0.2B Digital Gaming will now have to Contend with the DIGITAL GAMING OF ORC. Digital Gaming is not evil - its just a thing - but it does make it that smaller publishers like Game in the Brain have an easier time entering and participating in the market. with VTTs possibly being threated by OGL 2.0 would have a harder time implementing licenses (something the OGL 1.0a was fixing and thus loses initiative).
- Digital is the most lucrative future and has the lowest operating cost - imagine apps that allow you to make books and edit them quickly as sections and chapters are easily Consolidated for Print or Arranged in Web for ease of Play. IMAGINE MENME with its promise to update as the SCIENCE updates - struggling with MS WORD to update everything using an APP to update all the SETTING materials and RULES as we discover new things.
- Example. We discovered the exoplanets in Alpha Centauri - oh ok Menme will update to reflect that by just affecting 1 set of text and pressing a few buttons to cascade the changes in all the linked materials.
- Digitial with GODOT, Frappe.io, etc... Open Source platforms and games generating platforms will rely on ORC to avoid the LEGAL licensing issues.
- DIGITAL allows for ORGANIZED PLAY. the problem before with Organized Play (which is very popular here in the Philippines ) is the need for Consensus. The Philippines relied on Authority to build consensus - but now DIGITAL means the people who used to do Organized Play can set up their own living World - and get Consensus.
- ORGANIZED play means my game matters to not just my friends - but a LARGER GROUP. my actions in this 1 game affects 10 other groups. DIGITAL creates the medium by which CHANGES in the LORE/SETTING and rules can be easily cascaded.
- ORGANIZED play is one of the most powerful tools of Evangelization here in the Philippines. if You have organization skills and storytelling skills - then you will hold these events without any permission with anyone but the END USERS. ORGANIZED play becomes a REAL PROFESSION with a career track that scales as the number of groups managed scales up - a full-time job with management track - how people make money just running games.
- Digital Tools VISUALIZATION tools like GODOT or Platforms like Frappe.io for rules and documentation.
- Smaller Publishers with great Customer Support hopefully thrive - because we want people responsive to our needs thrive - not a Large Corporations who can twist our arm are the ones who own the market.
- If 1B/which will be 4B in 4-10 years is broken up to the ORCs that means job security as more people making content and tools. the PIE will GROW and every piece of the Pie will grow. With AI and Better tools - the artist and writers we want to support can do and make more
- IF the community is complacent - the ability to make a living with organized play of massive scales of players where they KEEP ALL THE PROFITS (TO GROW) is at stake. 4B is at stake. 4B that is made up of many 3rd Party Publishers etc...
- Note that we are only looking at America's consumption of this in the analysis. As developing nations develop and the 5+ billion have a middle class - this 4B becomes 40B in 20 years (in all the languages and cultures). Africans, Indians, South-east-asians, and Chinese playing Organized Play would have staggering amounts. (One of the reasons I learned mandarin was to be able to Run trpgs in Mandarin).
*Why will it grow to 4B. Because ORGANIZED PLAY and DIGITAL will make Players start spending, and not just the GM. I have friends who play in 4-6 games a week, while GMS can only handle 0.5-1 game per week. now Players can PLAY and consume Organized Play they way they BINGE watch their favorite media.
IT'S A SERVICE. I have a long complaint that people still see Manufacturing as an indicator of a successful economy. SERVICE is the most democratic source of Gross Domestic Product - it relies more on the People organizing than a Capitalist with MONEY to throw their weight around and manipulate the gov't and laws. Service Economy means it GROWS as you put retraining, education, and QUALITY of LIFE improvements in your economy. it can be better if your metric is quality of life - not kill count/dick-measuring vanity metrics. TRPGs - organized play and digital development are services.
More Financial Stuff
- https://investor.hasbro.com/financial-information
- https://investor.hasbro.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hasbro-reports-third-quarter-financial-results
My cynical side has come to 2 conclusions.
- A previous conclusion I've had in the past year is that: There is no real innovation - just new ways of exploitation in most large corporations.
- Now reading this and all other like this: Going Public to have HUGE investments and Unrealistic Returns is an extension of my previous one. This time - Going Public is just a means to have a lot of CAPITAL to buy out competition in order to monopolize the market. A combination of HIGH UNREALISTIC RETURNS and no creativity and innovation means - the standard play is just to buy out the competition or twist the arm of the customers.
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