Space Elevators - how they would come about

Basics

1. First comes the Economic Incentives, the space industry with 100x the investment we currently have in it - because the Technology it produces makes up a good chunk of the infrastructure and commodities will have to happen first.
The global space economy, valued at around 423.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2019, includes a range of activities involved in the researching, exploring, and utilization of space. There are several ways the industry can be divided for analysis, all of which have some overlap. 
423B x 100 = 42.300T (the vacuum airships, RAM jet reusable LEO rockets, and the sky hook will happen first at probably 1 magnitude lower).
2. That would mean there would be Spin Habitat Stations already orbititing that will serve as an Anchor. They will build the MINIMUM height that can grow. They'll probably begin with a 600KM distance (LEO) instead of a 36K km with the Counterweight Station having ROCKETS to add 𝚫V when there is loss due to Thermospheric Drag. 
3. The tether cable will be made of the strongest material we can make given the Infancy of the Space Industry. Basically, the Spin Hab, Captured Near-Earth Asteroids, and the Moon bases that manufacture materials will probably determine the materials. 
1. The IMPORTANCE of Microgravity Manufacturing is the creation of 3d space nano structures (see ORgan 3d Printing in Space) - this applies to making Materials we have here on Earth Self-organize in a way that We will design a stronger structure that gravity will not influence - the way pyramids are designed purely on a Gravity function but Sky scrapers with our Human Design allows far greater structures.  
2. One of the most important things to understand about Microgravity Manufacturing is that Engineers want to control how Structures in the atomic level organize. 
4. So you will see a Space Station slowly descending its tether cable down - manufacturing a KM or so every quarter or a year for a multi-Decade project - countries Investing so that the total Cost of the Space Elevator will be smaller for their usage cost. 
5. There will be a Receptacle to Catch it and it will climb from the equatorial and there will be several tries with Vacuum Airships extending stabilizing the cable.
6. Definitely, there will be multiple (4) Ongoing Space Elevators set by US-USAN,  ASEAN+Japan+ANZ alliance,  China & Africa Group, and India and Middle East Space Alliance. 
7. Probably the 2,000usd per KG to LEO will change as VACUUM Airships and Reusable RAM jets come reducing this by 1/2 to 1/4 as Safety and Efficiency can drive the price UP as well. Space Elevators will be priced against Vacuum Airships and Reusable Jet-Rockets at probably hundreds of USD per KG. Vacuum Airships and Fan WING electric Jets will drive the price of flight per KG lower but reduce the KM per KG per USD.  
1. 2100s will have the FIRST space elevator online. In the following decades, the others will follow. 
8. As a SPINE, the Elevator grows and gains investments and Height as the microgravity manufacturing improves by huge leaps and bounds as more SPIN habs go online and a more regular workforce is established. Eventually, entire Kiloton Ships can be RAISED from the elevator assisted by Vacuum Airships. 

Help support us by Buying Mneme Variant Combat Rules 

The current Project is a Hard Scifi Cepheus Engine Compatible Setting inspired by Daniel Suarez Delta-V, Artemis and the Martian by Andy Weir, Expanse, Seveneves by Neal Stephenson. Making adventures in the Near Future - 2050+ based on my work experience in a Developing Country (Philippines) and how the world will be very different and much the same. 

Hard Scifi Heroes: Technical Challenges and Overcoming Hazards

I can feel Chris Hadfields frustration that the public doesn't appreciate "Heroic Problem Solvers". That violence is the only narrative of heroism and watching this interview makes me realize I have to figure out more ways to people feel GREAT and heroes Solving problems instead of violent catharsis.   

1. His concerns about how professional and situation-awareness and serious Spacers are duly noted. I can break this down into the following:
1. Task-Oriented  - the mindfulness and awareness of the Job and its Dangers.
2. They PREPARE and perform due diligence. The concern was why did they goof around when spacers have to suffer so much and permanent damage to their bodies in space. 
2. The Ingenuity and the personality of being able to adapt, learn, make mistakes, etc... Some personalities cannot be corrected without seeing correction as a Hostile Act. There is a very very different kind of Human mindset to really work together and be able to deal with problems and not lose focus. 
3. The Great DETECTIVE hunt of problem-solving - everyday sleuthing. The intelligence and presence of mind to recall tried and true techniques BUT rapidly iterate them to their more sophisticated displays and demonstration as they quickly search for a solution to an elusive problem. 
4. GMs or Players can create an Atmosphere of Task-Oriented and Work-Humility-Optimism that can make technical challenges interesting and amazing. It's not IMPOSSIBLE, this problem can be approached by the SAME VIRTUES we hope to emulate - BEST OF ALL: WE CAN PRETEND to be Task-Oriented, Great-Focus, and Professionalism. My favorite part about TRPGS is pretending until it seems I've stopped pretending and actually get glimpses of being what I hope to be. 
5. First Man. He points out why everyone is so sad. Professional people with good EQ make work engaging, fulfilling, and Fun. People crack jokes, they understand the scale of their scientific and technological feats. 
6. Hidden Figures illustrates the Problem Statement as a part of Pacing. Particularly the Expectations being shaped as the problem slowly reveals itself - sometimes expectations being subverted as the GM makes twists and turns to make things exciting. 
7. Space is Beautiful 

Help support us by Buying Mneme Variant Combat Rules 

The current Project is a Hard Scifi Cepheus Engine Compatible Setting inspired by Daniel Suarez Delta-V, Artemis and the Martian by Andy Weir, Expanse, Seveneves by Neal Stephenson. Making adventures in the Near Future - 2050+ based on my work experience in a Developing Country (Philippines) and how the world will be very different and much the same. 

TL9.0 to TL9.2 Modularization Manufacturing

Taylorism and Scientific Manufacturing is in TL5

While FORD and his improvements in the Assembly Line is in TL6

Quality Management: Deming, TPS, Lean is TL7

Early CNC machines are TL7, 

3d Printing,  is TL8,  

TL9 is the Modularization of Manufacturing. 

Problem Statement:

Total Cost of Ownership of a Particular Range of Manufacturing is too expensive. By Too expensive at the current business models, many markets are underserved and cannot experiment or fill niches because it's too expensive to use current methods to satisfy that market. If the starting Capital can be reduced then more innovation can be achieved and NEW ideas can arise and challenge the existing paradigms. 

Studies in LEAN, TPS, QMS and AGILE. 

One of the MAIN problems of Older Organizations is the Bias and Assumptions that are far greater than any one person can contain. A collection of Biases and Assumptions creates a lot of Inertia - particularly the inertia to stay the same. 

Its easier to Startup or Buy A Startup, buy a Competing Culture that has most of our core values but approaches it a different way. the Existing Market Leaders will buy their competition, but cannot resist dismantling them and cannibalizing them instead of using them as a seed by which to grow. 

Why hasn't more Vehicles and Manufacturing become Modularized? 

You see the Trend in CPUs with RISC and the need for Right to Repair and Open Standards. Imagine Modular Single-Board-Computers (Like Rasberry Pis and the other SBCs that came in its wake) being the basic component. Imagine not buying a New Desktop, but buying a Mother Board that SLOTS in a number of SBCs that meet an OPEN REPAIR standard. 

the PCIE slots slot in Specialized SBCs: adding power or changing specializations as needed. 

Now for VEHICLES and APPLIANCES, we have a Framework: BODIES/CHASIS and of course its Internal Parts. What I'm "World-Building" is that Enough CNC Machines, FREECAD users, and designers can build a small Company that can create Appliances for a CITY and fulfills most of its lifecycle requirements. 

VEHICLES Manufacturing can be achieved in the same way. CELL manufacturing has been discussed in Operations Management and Research - the Assembly Line exists because there is a single product that needs to be produced and thus the Steps are laid out in the line. But in a highly diverse and adaptable type of manufacturing Cellular approach requires more Indipedented, high initiative, and more pro-active and skilled personnel - the CNC machines and new Materials help but its basically Taking Deming and TPS's and LEAN's human focus to a much higher level. Your shop flow personnel are not just tradesmen, but have the mastery of a professional engineer. They can plan and prepare like a MILITARY but they IMPROVISE on the drop of a hat. Basically what Chris Hadfield talks about in this Vanity Fair Interview

Modularization or Standardization reduces waste by removing the UNCERTAINTY and SCRATCH building that happens by having Optimized sub-processes. Processes and Functions have been reduced to the most versatile, economic, and to have a particular range of uses. 

In the Setting

• 2010's the Maker Movement and Open Workshops 
• 2020's the Reusable Launcher makes 0G Manufacturing more plausible. 
• 2025 Micro and Modular Factories like Arrival Enter the market. 
• 2025 Satelite Internet is Affordable at 100usd/mo at 200mbps anywhere around the world - with Oneweb Starlink and China's Constellation allowing high Tech infra anywhere. 
• 2030 More Modular Micro Factories are adopted, You see them being built in China and India. China, India, and Japan ventures to ASEAN, USAN and Africa Group. India (example is the Mahindra Group) and China 
• 2035 the Catch up of Developing countries like Indonesia and Philippines to the rest of southeast Asia (the 20-year gap shortens to 15-year gap). Vietnam, Thailand, and Malasia cooling. The Demographics of skilled labor and Comparative advantage and trade - major environmental and economic setbacks created more opportunities for some of these countries as some Gov'ts attempt a turnaround. 
• 2035 Micro Modular Factories raise the level of technology in Developing Countries - Countries who lost the major Production to other countries can now have Local production (Example Vietnam becoming the manufacturing hub in South East Asia , the other Countries can now have a smaller car and heavy industry manufacturing).  
• 2050 Localized Manufacturing. the Maker movement is not just in Developed countries - maker spaces and some franchising of such Workshops have begun to spring up. From bootleg repairs and Open Standard Repairs - the E-wastes have been greatly reduced and being reversed - Landfills are being scrounged for E-waste. This varies depending on the country, but many developing countries have rapidly growing Local Manufacturing. 
• 2080 Low Earth Orbit Manufacturing 

Help support us by Buying Mneme Variant Combat Rules 

The current Project is a Hard Scifi Cepheus Engine Compatible Setting inspired by Daniel Suarez Delta-V, Artemis and the Martian by Andy Weir, Expanse, Seveneves by Neal Stephenson. Making adventures in the Near Future - 2050+ based on my work experience in a Developing Country (Philippines) and how the world will be very different and much the same. 

My open GDOC notes on Blender -Notes of my work with Nicco for our TRPG writing

200504 GITB Blender Basics 

These are the notes and tutorials we use as our team is making Game Material. This also includes concepts and ideas and our strategies as we write more material for Mneme Variant Rules. 

I realize a lot of other Gamers are using 3d more and more for their Games and here I can have a discussion on workflows and techniques. 

I like teaching and discussing the theories and concepts as well as sharing good tutorials as well as my Problems. Problem statements are important as well understanding I cannot form a Problem Statement. I don't mind sharing especially if I can get feedback in return. 

Imphenzia youtube channel is critical in starting - instead of Digesting all the theory in Blender Channel, you can start with Imphenzia's low Poly studies. Whats important of low poly studies is that the EXPECTATIONS are lowered and more forgiving. Nothing is as crippling and self-defeating as mismatched Expectations - it cripples me before I begin. Its hard to see the incremental improvement when we cannot appreciate the work and small wins. 

Hard Scifi - Social Classes from a 3rd Worlder

 One of the 3rd World aspects of Character creation is the role of Status. Developing Countries - Generational change of Social Status sees Education as a key role - there are those that got rich without it but there are so many who owe their status to it. Its a huge cultural difference between Developed and Developing countries. 

When Germany makes Higher Education Free as well as Technical Education - there is that AWARENESS about social mobility and access to education that we don't see in other societies. 

As a 3rd Worlder - Status has a Strong influence - it is expensive being poor and because of the denser and mixed conditions here, it's easier to see - in a building, you pan your view and see the slums and high rises quite easily. With some basic observation, you can see the difference of the 3-4 story buildings that any Civil engineer can Sign for that is filled with Tenants and small businesses which have a structure that seems to sag over time - they don't use Cladding to prevent the pollution from sticking to the walls and giving the building its age. 

in the bottom the patched up housing.

Also in the lifetime of my father things changed rapidly - especially with population pressures that near nearly quadrupled the population while he was growing up. 

I am aware of my Father's social class - and how his workmen talked to him and who he aspires to. My mothers family, my grandfather was a Haciendero's son who studied in the University of Sto Tomas and escaped the Japanese occupation to be a guerilla - a total nerd - he is an example of how he Lost his social status - and changed it for the status of the Town's Principal - of Notra Dame Cotobato. 

When I see the lost fingers of workers who I hand their thousand dollar watches for their 25 years in the company during the Christmas party, to the familiar death that happens yearly as these men reach 50-60, and my peers. 

Its weird when I write Social Status mechanics and EXPLOIT them coming from an Opus Dei school and speaking with a particular class accent - the signaling that happens. 

Social status is a big deal when there is no empathy to see how much more expensive it is to be poor, how every little thing adds up - the way we are OBSESSED with every little improvement in our main tools - ram, processor, OS, architecture, AGILE or Waterfall, test Cycles etc.... every Little thing we are obsessed with yet cannot see how a near subsistence living and the uncertainty of income impacts an entire system and personality - its so Weird when I hear the "Classism" "you just need to work harder" bullshit which a Systems Designer cannot unsee / a glaring reality that lights up so many problems. 

It's a big deal the way Intelligence is a Big Deal - and it can be simple yet illustrative of how powerful it is. Social Rolls where getting LOANS, ability to get 0 Interest or 10-30% discounting with Cash on hand, having a Reserve of Cash or mortgage-able assets. 

Ask a regular person about Unit Investment Trust Fund (UITF) in the Philippines its easy to see Financial class differences - from people who get suckered in get-rich schemes and people who have the opportunity to invest in land or their career. In the Philippines the Drivers license and Passport is the required ID for having a savings account but one needs a car and to be able to travel abroad to have such documents. 

If it was an African, South Asian, South East Asian, East Asian, South American, Middle Eastern etc.. I can imagine being able to Look at the social Status levels - their behavior that relate to the arms race of social status. How easy it is to open a bank account, agents bending over backwards for their patronage and being able to get a job. 

Social Status is so different in TL9 - the "belters" the ESSENTIAL WORKERS of today and the Essential Workers of tomorrow and the market forces that will exploit them as MORE spacer technicians arise - and what happens to the people who do not have the stomach to survive a Spin Hab, Work in Zero G, etc... unmodified. 

I can imagine the people who took the LOANS to have inner-ear modifications and have to take such loans for their Children. The CLASS distinctions of a person who cannot spend the 1/2 of their waking hours in self-care - their demineralization of bones and shrinking of their heart as they spend more HOURS in 0G.  the RAT RACE in space, the Radiation belt hazards, people having to store and save their gametes - imagine an Entire multi-generational household investing in Gamete storage and shielding.

Imagine operating an Inertia Bank - a multi-KM spinning spiral chain that CATCHES and hurls heka-KiloTon ships to allow them to Travel Intersystem Jupiter to Saturn or Jupiter to Belt. The ability to Operate cheaply and how PAINFULLY net Income will slowly arrive to or may never arrive - to allow InterSystem Travell can be done by ships with less than 30Km/s 𝚫V. Using the mass of Gigaton Mountain to store inertia - the Spiral Arms extending or Shrinking to Manipulate angular momentum as needed. 

Uterine Pods and their importance to a Habitat or Colony. How fully enclosed food Production modules - food made to grow in a Box at a particular Density - the buying and selling of these Pods. How social Status is an Element of SOCIAL mechanics and Economics. How Violations of Social Contracts are inevitable because groups of people cannot help but have so little 𝚫V to make corrective changes as profitability and humanity tend to contradict in a massive system. 

*All the photos are just from my own. the top is the view of our new condo we're moving to, and this one in the bottom is on the overpass to Taguig Bonifacio Global City Centra Biz District. 

What would make Players Interested in a Near Future Setting 2050-2070?

When I wrote Mneme Variant Combat Rules in Cepheus Engine, I was using an Adaptive approach to name design. I wanted to tackle the big Picture of Hard Scifi Traveller, but as my vision of the game got more educated with Simple Rockets 2, Kerbal Space, Universe Sandbox, Children of a Dead Earth , Daniel Suarez Delta-V, Artemis and the Martian by Andy Weir, Expanse, Channels like Anton Petrov, Scott Manley, Astrum, etc... How can I make a number of people enjoy or warm up to a near future setting. 

Particularly a near-future setting where there REALY is a profitable reason to go to space. 3d Printing Organs, ZBLAN (microgravity made fiberoptics), new material states for quantum computing etc... would mean more frequent Personnel Rotation, a lot of Personnel, and Spin Habitats - and early manufacturing. 

Players or PCs can be the growing professional class take on the RISKS and REWARDS of space industry. Engineers, Technicians, Administrators, Leaders, etc... who have to work in the dangerous and risky environment of early space Habitats and Stations. 

What used to be 4-10 people at space at any given time of the year in 2021 to thousands of people in 2050 and tens of thousands of people under a million in 2080 in cis lunar space. the moon being a manufacturing hub for micro-gravity manufacturing. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_spaceflights#2021%E2%80%93present 

A large habitat of hundreds of thousands of tons of Volume of habitats will compete for space to orbit the moon. Habitats that will provide 1G living space for people who work on the moon. Orbiting the moon in 1.5kms (the ISS orbits at 7.66 kms to create enough centrifugal force to negate the gravity BUT being in the thermosphere there will be some speed loss over time). 

Players are the Spacers who will be needed to help assemble these stations and plants. instead of Rolling Attack and Damage, players will be rolling their Admin, Engineering, Social Skills etc... to get the resources and conditions just right to operate their business AND deal with the many other problems that follow. 

I love the case study method of learning and to me the TRPG of this is a great place to learn - even if we go into Hard Scifi Imperfect, Amature, and ignorant. Thats the THING about playing this kind of game: We are going to the unknown - we Will be improvising and we all are going to have to work with our limited talents. How do I make people excited for this? 

 

 

Deming Cycle - Game Mechanics

 Is it so weird that I use the Deming cycle in The Mneme Variant Combat rules for Cepheus Engine I made for Cepheus engine? Breaking it down to fractal Cycles of combat rounds and rolls?

I wanted to structure around the Deming cycle so it becomes a Fractal system that the player or gm take in macro levels up and levels down.

The Deming cycle is used in PMBOK and Agile to approach uncertainty. Gamers would recognize the Deming cycle in the Tension curve aka Narrative Arc or Pacing in storytelling as well as Catharsis emotional cycle in CBT triangle.